The Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), one of the regional commissions of the United Nations (UN), reveals that the Arab region would witness an economic recovery in 2022 and 2023.
Despite the risks the global economy is confronting even two years after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic prospects remain positive for the Arab region, ESCWA pointed out in its latest survey.
In the 2020-2021 survey of social and economic developments of the Arab region, the ESCWA predicted that the economic recovery which began last year will continue and it would help in boosting the regional gross domestic product (GDP) by 3.7 in 2022 and by 3.6 percent in 2023.
The pace of recovery will differ from one country to another in accordance with the vaccination campaigns against the COVID-19, the revenue of oil and tourism, and the volume of financial remittances as well as the flow of credit aid.
The survey revealed that its expectations depended on two scenarios, the first one is related to the continued slow vaccination campaigns and the average oil prices of $60 per barrel. While the second scenario is pertaining to accelerating the vaccination process and increasing demand for oil with $80.
The poverty rate in the Arab region will decline from 27 percent out of the total population in 2021 to 26 percent in 2023, Mr. Ahmad Momy, Lead Author of the Survey, said.
“Unemployment rates, however, will remain among the highest worldwide, especially those of women and youth, although they are expected to decrease from 11.8 percent in 2021 to 10.7 percent in 2023,” Mr. Momy stated.
The report shows that the GDPs of the countries affected by the conflicts are seen to hit 4.5 percent in 2022 and 6.9 percent in 2023. Due to the big economic and social challenges, the least growth in the Arab countries is expected to hit 2 percent in 2022 and 2.6 percent in 2023, but the Omicron variant may also slow down GDP growth in these countries to 1.7 percent in 2022, the survey said.
Further, Mr. Momy underlined that oil and gas proceeds remained the main source of revenue in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, while middle-income countries depended on taxes as a major source of public revenue, including regressive taxes on goods and services which imposed greater burdens on the poor and the middle classes.
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