Qatar National Bank (QNB) has stated that the economies of the ASEAN-6 group are expected to maintain growth rates well above the global average, supported by strong demographic trends, resilient domestic consumption, increasing regional integration, and a steady rise in investments in technology and digital infrastructure.
In its weekly report, QNB identified a prolonged US-Israel-Iran conflict as the most significant downside risk to the region’s outlook. Such a scenario, the bank said, could lead to persistently higher energy costs, weaker consumer confidence, and disruptions to supply chains that underpin ASEAN’s manufacturing base.
Nevertheless, ASEAN economies are expected to maintain relatively strong fundamentals in 2026 despite an increasingly challenging global environment.
The report noted that Southeast Asia has been among the world’s most dynamic economic regions over recent decades, consistently delivering some of the strongest growth rates globally. Within the region, the six largest members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines – have ranked among the world’s fastest-growing economies, with Singapore having already attained advanced-economy status.
According to QNB, the ASEAN-6 entered 2026 on a solid footing after delivering stronger-than-expected growth in 2025 despite significant shifts in global trade policies.
Growth performance across the bloc was broad-based. Vietnam recorded an exceptional expansion of 8 percent in 2025, its second-highest annual growth rate since 2011, driven by robust manufacturing activity, a strong tourism recovery, export growth, and sustained foreign direct investment inflows.
Indonesia’s economy expanded by 5.1 percent, supported by resilient domestic demand, while Malaysia posted growth of 5.2 percent, underpinned by substantial digital-sector investments and strong export momentum.
Singapore benefited from rising global investment in artificial intelligence-related infrastructure and increased spending on large-scale infrastructure projects. The Philippines maintained solid growth, while Thailand continued to face structural challenges, including elevated household debt levels.
QNB concluded that despite the anticipated slowdown, growth prospects are likely to vary considerably across ASEAN economies due to differences in economic structures, domestic demand dynamics, energy import dependence, and exposure to external trade shocks. Among the group, Vietnam and Indonesia are expected to remain the most resilient performers.
