The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reportedly stated that world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025.
In its monthly report, OPEC predicted robust fuel use in the summer months and stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024. Further, it highlighted an unusually large gap between predictions of oil demand strength.
OPEC has indicated that it is more optimistic on the challenge of mitigating non-OPEC supply growth in the coming months, with downward revisions to expected production growth outside the bloc in 2024 and 2025, reported S&P Global ratings.
According to the reports, “The recent uptick in prices – supported by the overlapping cuts by the wider OPEC+ alliance and conflict in the Middle East and Europe – has led some analysts to forecast that the group may move to wind down some of its cuts in the second half of the year.”
OPEC said in its closely watched monthly oil market report that it will remain vigilant and is prepared to act alongside its allies if necessary. The robust oil demand outlook for the summer months warrants careful market monitoring, amid ongoing uncertainties, to ensure a sound and sustainable market balance.
Further, it sees non-OECD regions, mainly China, the Middle East, and other countries in Asia driving demand.
OPEC has forecast that non-OPEC supply will grow by 1 million b/d in 2024 – revised down by 100,000 b/d from its previous report released in early March. It also revised down its estimate of non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 by 100,000 b/d to 1.3 million b/d, the report said. OPEC sees the bulk of this growth coming from the US, Brazil, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Norway.
OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 2.2 million b/d in 2024, with slight upward revisions to OECD Europe demand estimates offset by downward revisions to Africa and the Middle East. It forecasts global demand growth of 1.8 million b/d in 2025.
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