Leading provider of economic consensus, FocusEconomics has forecasted Qatar’s merchandise trade balance to reach $49.8 billion in 2024.
A trade balance refers to the difference between the value of imported and exported goods to a country.
FocusEconomics report places Qatar’s current year trade balance at $25.4 billion. The report also placed the trade balance numbers at $32.1 billion (in 2021), $38.7 billion (2022) and $44.8 billion (2023).
The report said that Qatar’s fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP is set to rise to 4.7 percent in 2024 from an estimated -7.6 percent this year. The country’s public debt (as a percentage of GDP) has been forecast to fall to 52.8 from 64.8 this year.
The researcher expects Qatar’s public debt as a percentage of the gross domestic product to fall continuously over the next four years with the projections of 62.9 percent for the next year, 59.5 percent (for 2022) and 56.2 percent expected at 2023.
GDP Numbers
FoucsEconomics expects Qatar’s GDP to reach $216 billion in 2024 from $163 billion this year. The report says that next year, it will be $177 billion, followed by $190 billion (2022) and $203 billion in 2023.
The firm estimates the GDP per capita to touch $77,495 in 2024 from $59,007 this year. The same indicator for next year will be $64,130, followed by $68,662 in 2022 and $73,090 in 2023.
Projections suggest that Qatar’s economic growth in terms of nominal GDP will reach 6.3 percent in 2024 from -11.2 percent by year-end. Next year, economic growth in terms of nominal GDP will be 8.9 percent, 7.3 percent in 2022 and 6.7 percent in 2023.
The current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) will be 4.6 percent in 2024 compared with -3.7 percent in 2020, 0.4 percent (2021), 4.5 percent (2022) and 4.5 percent in 2023.
International reserves may exceed $32.4 billion in 2024, from $31.9 billion this year.
Market Place
The country’s inflation, the report noted, will be -1.1 percent this year, 1.5 percent (2021), 1.7 percent (2022), 1.8 percent (2023) and 2 percent in 2024.
Qatar’s unemployment rate (as a percentage of the active population) will remain a meager 0.1 percent in 2024, from 0.4 percent this year. Next year it will be 0.3 percent, 0.2 percent in 2022 and 2023, FocusEconomics said.
After mild growth in Q1, the country’s economic activity “likely plunged” in the second quarter due to Covid-19, which led the government to implement containment measures and saw a collapse in visitor arrivals.
The non-energy private-sector PMI was in contractionary territory throughout the quarter, amid lower new orders, output and employment.
More positively, energy production surged in May. Moreover, momentum in the non-energy private-sector rebounded somewhat in June amid the easing of restrictions, with the PMI recording the largest-ever month-on-month increase — albeit still signaling worsening operating conditions, FocusEconomics said.
The economy is expected to contract this year. The lockdown will cripple the tourism sector for the majority of the year, while depressed energy prices will weigh heavily on government finances and the external sector.
Nevertheless, a “strong fiscal stimulus package” to support the non-oil private sector should cushion the downturn, the report said.
FocusEconomics panelists see a 3.2 percent contraction in GDP in 2020, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before the growth of 3.1 percent in 2021.
Consumer prices fell 3.4 percent in annual terms in June, down from May’s 3.1 percent decline, as lockdowns continued to drag on prices. Consumer prices are seen falling over 2020 as a whole on weak demand.
Its panelists see consumer prices falling 1.1 percent in 2020, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
In 2021, FocusEconomics sees inflation averaging 1.5%.
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